Abstract of Amsterdam paper

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"A reappraisal of market liquidity risk in the light of the Russia/LTCM global securities market crisis"

Abstract

The collapse of market liquidity in securities markets – notably in the US – that followed the Russian default and the LTCM rescue in 1998, was considered at the time to be almost unprecedented. Even Mr Greenspan remarked "we do not as yet fully understand the new system’s dynamics". Clearly, the pattern was unusual in that it affected the deepest and most liquid markets in the world. However, the broad phenomenon of abrupt declines in securities market liquidity is not unusual. Amongst parallel episodes are the collapse of the FRN market in 1987, the junk bond crisis of 1990, the collapse of the Swedish commercial paper market also in 1990 and the difficulties of the ECU bond market in 1992. Admittedly, most of these comparable patterns in the past affected rather minor and segmented markets, which tended to feature a concentrated structure of market makers, investors and/or issuers. The most similar episode was perhaps that in the US CP market at the time of the Penn Central bankruptcy in 1970, which was considered of sufficiently systemic dimensions to warrant a policy response.

 

It is suggested that a recurrent pattern can be traced in debt securities markets, which is similar in some ways to contagious bank runs. In effect, markets cease to function, so that securities are transformed temporarily into non-marketable loans, or at least suffer major price shifts. This may entail severe difficulties for those relying on their liquidity, including investors, issuers and market makers, and can lead to systemic risk in the financial system more generally. Difficulties are more threatening now than in the past given the increasing use of securities markets for funding, trading and investment by banks and other institutions with a maturity mismatch, the incidence of "herding" behaviour as investors adopt similar portfolio strategies and the prevalence of leveraged position taking.

 

The issue of market liquidity risk has been neglected both in theory and practice. Emphasis in theoretical and empirical studies of financial instability is traditionally placed on bank failures, or consequences of sharp changes in asset prices. Of greater concern is that both risk management models and some aspects of regulation appear to pay rather little heed to the phenomenon. In this overall context, the paper extends earlier analysis of this topic by the author by considering the features and implications of the Russia/LTCM episode in US markets in the light of past experiences, theory and current financial market behaviour. It seeks to arrive at conclusions regarding the predictability of such events, how the risk of their occurrence can be minimised, an appropriate regulatory response to protect financial institutions, the need for central bank intervention when such crises do occur and the overall implications for a securitised financial system. A range of topics for further research is proposed which are commended to the attention of central banks and regulators.